The Surprising Hispanic Voter Shift: Impact on Presidential Politics in Key States

In a recent segment on "CNN News Central," Senior Political Data Reporter Harry Enten expressed profound astonishment at the significant shift in Hispanic voter support away from President Joe Biden and toward former President Donald Trump. Analyzing polling data from 2020 and 2024, Enten highlighted a remarkable 20-point swing in Hispanic voters’ allegiance, a trend that has caught the attention of both analysts and the media.

The data paints a vivid picture of the seismic shift in Hispanic voter sentiment. In 2020, Biden enjoyed a commanding 27-point lead over Trump among Hispanic voters, with 59 percent supporting Biden compared to 32 percent for Trump. However, fast forward four years, and Biden's lead has dramatically shrunk to just seven points, with a narrow 51-44 margin.

Enten's animated reaction mirrored the gravity of the situation, emphasizing the magnitude of this unexpected development. He underscored the implications of this shift, noting Trump's renewed confidence in his ability to court Hispanic voters, a demographic traditionally aligned with Democratic candidates.

The impact of this Hispanic voter realignment extends beyond mere numbers, shaping the electoral landscape in key battleground states. Enten highlighted Nevada and Arizona, where Hispanics constitute 19 percent and 17 percent of likely voters, respectively. Recent polls indicate Trump leading by significant margins in these states, reflecting the growing influence of Hispanic voters on electoral outcomes.

However, the analysis also raises questions about overlooked states such as New Mexico, where Hispanics represent a substantial 45 percent of the electorate. Despite its significance, New Mexico has largely been sidelined in the discussion, with minimal polling data available to assess Trump's momentum in the region. This lack of attention underscores the complexity of interpreting electoral dynamics across diverse states and demographics.

Furthermore, the broader narrative of swing-state dynamics reveals contrasting trends between regions. While Trump's gains among Hispanic voters bolster his prospects in states like Nevada and Arizona, the situation differs in Great Lakes swing states. Here, Biden maintains a competitive edge, buoyed by stronger support among older and whiter demographics.

Enten's analysis underscores the nuanced interplay between demographic shifts and political outcomes. While Hispanic voters' evolving preferences present challenges for Biden in certain regions, they also underscore the dynamic nature of electoral politics and the need for comprehensive analysis beyond conventional paradigms.

In conclusion, the evolving landscape of Hispanic voter sentiment has emerged as a defining factor in shaping presidential politics, particularly in crucial battleground states. As the 2024 election cycle progresses, understanding these demographic dynamics will be pivotal in deciphering electoral outcomes and crafting effective political strategies.

Original article:

'My Goodness Gracious': CNN Data Analyst Stunned by Hispanic Voter Shift That Appears to Be Helping Trump in 2 Key States

By Michael Schwarz

June 10, 2024 at 4:01pm

http://w-j.co/s/d5ba9

Non-white voters have abandoned President Joe Biden in such large numbers that even the establishment media has begun to notice.

Monday morning on “CNN News Central” with co-anchor John Berman, CNN Senior Political Data Reporter Harry Enten reacted to polling data from 2020 and 2024 that showed a 20-point swing in Hispanic voters’ support away from Biden and toward former President Donald Trump.

“Look at this tremendous shift,” Enten said, making emphatic side-to-side movements with his hands. “Oh, my goodness gracious.”

The data on the screen behind Enten showed the reason for his animated astonishment.

At this stage in the 2020 presidential campaign, Biden held a 27-point lead over Trump among Hispanic voters, 59 percent to 32 percent.

Four years later, Biden’s lead in that demographic has shrunk to only seven points, 51-44.

“It’s no wonder that Donald Trump thinks he can play for the Hispanic vote,” Enten said.

Berman then asked how these remarkable polling numbers have shaped the race in projected swing states.

Enten replied that Hispanics make up 19 percent of likely voters in Nevada and 17 percent in Arizona. Unsurprisingly, averages of recent polls showed Trump leading Biden by 7 points in Nevada and 5 points in Arizona.

In fact, given the trend Enten described, even those estimates might paint too rosy a picture for Biden.

For instance, according to Pew Research, Latino voters comprise 25 percent of the eligible electorate in Arizona and 22 percent in Nevada. CNN used “likely” rather than “eligible” voters — a reasonable metric but one that might actually understate Trump’s opportunity for gains.

In any event, Enten did not sugarcoat the bad news for Biden, which also included a 7-point Trump lead in Georgia, where a growing number of black voters have also abandoned the president’s 2020 coalition.

Meanwhile, Biden polled much better with the older and whiter population of the Great Lakes region. Trump held a 2-point lead in Pennsylvania and stood tied with Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin.

“The bottom line, John, to take away from this is where Hispanic voters make up a significant share of the electorate, that is where Joe Biden is struggling the most relative to four years ago,” Enten said.

On one hand, the analysis here could not be simpler. After all, Hispanics have as much reason to dislike inflation, foreign wars, domestic tyranny and — yes — illegal immigration as all other Americans. Since they prefer prosperity, peace, freedom and a humane, legal immigration system, they obviously cannot support Biden.

Nonetheless, as summer approaches, the entire swing-state storyline has grown somewhat frustrating.

For instance, Enten noted that Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters have translated to polling leads in heavily-Hispanic Nevada and Arizona. He then noted a similar situation in Georgia and contrasted it with the presumptive Great Lakes swing states.

But what about New Mexico? According to Pew, Latinos comprise a whopping 45 percent of that state’s electorate. How has Trump’s momentum translated there?

Alas, no one seems to care. According to RealClear Polling, no major polling outlet has surveyed voters in that state since August. FiveThirtyEight showed a similar lack of polling out of New Mexico.

In the 2020 presidential election, Biden won New Mexico by nearly 11 points. But Biden also won Minnesota and New Hampshire by 7 points each. And recent polling has those states trending toward the toss-up category.

Likewise, Trump has generated significant momentum in Virginia, New Jersey and even New York — states that Biden won in 2020 by margins of 10, 16 and 23 points, respectively.

In fact, two recent polls, one by Fox News and another by Roanoke College, showed Trump and Biden tied in Virginia. With independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent candidate Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein in the mix, the latest Emerson College polls showed Biden leading by only 7 points in New Jersey and 7 points in New York.

In other words, with Hispanic voters moving toward Trump in such large numbers, the time has come for the establishment media to expand its focus beyond the six or seven presumptive swing states and give Americans an accurate account of the changing electorate.

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